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Euan has questioned whether or not a rise in drinking water Slash like this could have a substantial adequate influence on production to explain every one of the declines we see. Allow me to try to produce an estimate on how massive it could be. We can't make this happen with any precision in the fractional flow curve simply because we don't have an exact fractional movement curve for this Portion of Ghawar. Even so, There exists other info in Paper #93439 which lets us estimate this. In particular, the paper contains a discussion of what portion of generation originates from powering the flood entrance, compared to in front of the flood front.
Now, This can be dropping, presumably since the h2o behind the flood front has bigger and higher h2o Slash after a while, and the water dealing with facilities are limited. If we extrapolate out the orange line to right now, only fifty five% of manufacturing will be coming from driving the flood front.
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For instance, the tutorial I referenced earlier shows this image for a normal fractional circulation curve:
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So my layer counting states that over 14 a long time we went from 10 levels of red/pink in the crest to 2 layers of purple while in the crest. And if we do the exact same with the (b) cross area about the eastern flank, we get this:
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